U.S. Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s campaign against vaccines has already led to a reduction in the number of mandatory childhood immunizations. In addition, pharmaceutical companies and healthcare experts anticipate outbreaks of infectious diseases, declining revenue for major vaccine manufacturers, and an increase in merger and acquisition activity in the market.
The new U.S. vaccination schedule has reduced the number of diseases for which routine childhood vaccination is recommended to 11. Specifically, decisions regarding vaccination against rotavirus, influenza, meningococcal disease, and hepatitis A can now be made by parents and healthcare providers. Health experts believe this could lower the overall vaccination rate. The updated schedule also recommends a single dose of the HPV vaccine for children instead of two.
In 2024—before Kennedy began his campaign to reduce vaccination—children in the U.S. were recommended vaccines for 17 diseases.
The consequences of reduced vaccination are already evident today, as illustrated by the example of South Carolina. As of January 13, the state had recorded 434 measles cases—an increase of 124 since the previous update on January 9. A key reason is a sharp drop in vaccination coverage: in some schools, it has fallen to 20%.
Meanwhile, measles remains one of the most contagious infections. Preventing an epidemic is only possible with vaccination coverage of at least 95% of the population—this threshold is necessary to establish herd immunity and protect those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons. The measles vaccine is 97% effective after two doses, making it one of the most reliable prevention tools.
Beyond public health risks, the rejection of vaccines also presents business risks. Most major pharmaceutical companies are dissatisfied with the imposed restrictions and are already calculating losses. Analysts at Bernstein stated that Merck could suffer the greatest losses from changes to the vaccination schedule. They estimated a potential $2 billion reduction in the company’s annual revenue due to likely declines in sales of its rotavirus vaccine RotaTeq and human papillomavirus vaccine Gardasil.
Moderna’s CFO James Mock also stated that U.S. retail vaccination rates had already fallen by approximately 26% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The company expects 2025 revenue of about $1.9 billion, nearing the upper end of its previously forecast range of $1.6 to $2 billion, yet this remains significantly below the revenue level achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, Moderna’s revenue in 2022 was $18.4 billion. The company expects to end the year with $8.1 billion in cash, higher than the previous forecast of $6.5–7 billion. This amount includes $600 million received in November from Ares Management as part of a five-year $1.5 billion credit facility.
Moderna also confirmed its goal for 2026: revenue growth of up to 10%. The company stated it expects to receive regulatory approvals this year for both its flu vaccine and its combined COVID-19 vaccine. Moderna hopes these launches will eventually offset some of the lost revenue from its standard COVID-19 vaccine.
In 2026, the company also anticipates receiving clinical trial data for experimental vaccines against oncological, rare, and infectious diseases. These include late-stage trial results for a norovirus vaccine and mid-stage trial data for an anti-cancer vaccine developed in collaboration with Merck.
Sanofi’s CEO Paul Hudson stated that his company would also likely face reduced demand for vaccines in the U.S. this year due to immunization skepticism fueled by “disinformation” from the Trump administration.
The French drugmaker has not yet provided a 2026 sales forecast but expects demand to stabilize over time. For now, Sanofi reported a decline in vaccine sales in the third quarter. According to Hudson, the policy uncertainty has created favorable conditions for mergers and acquisitions focused on vaccine production.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla also stated he was “deeply disappointed” with the administration’s stance on vaccines, as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—a longtime vaccination opponent—staffed the key vaccine advisory committee with like-minded individuals after dismissing its independent experts. Previously, Pfizer revised its 2025 revenue forecast downward to approximately $62 billion from $64 billion. Its annual profit forecast remains unchanged. It includes a reduction in revenue from COVID-19-related products—by about $1.5 billion this year.